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Economic Activity Index Continues to Reflect Negative Y-o-Y Growth

By on August 9, 2016

FAFAA logoSAN JUAN – The Puerto Rico Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority’s Economic Activity Index (FAFAA-EAI) for June 2016 was 123.7, reflecting a 1.8% decrease compared with June 2015 and a reduction of 1.4% compared with May 2016.

On a year-to-date basis (July 2015 to June 2016), the decline was of 1.4% with respect to the same period in the previous fiscal year.

The EAI is an economic indicator that summarizes current trends and dynamics of the Puerto Rico economy. It has a high correlation with the island’s real gross national product (GNP) in both levels and annual growth rates. This means the FAFAA-EAI accurately follows the behavior of the economy.

Of the four EAI indicators — payroll employment, electric-power consumption, gasoline consumption and cement sales — only two rose in June compared with a year ago.

Total non-farm payroll employment for June averaged 888,200, an annual decrease of 0.8%. For fiscal year 2016, total nonfarm payroll employment showed a 1.2% decrease with respect to fiscal 2015.

The preliminary data for electric power generation for June was 1.81 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), an annual rise of 0.4%. Electricity generation for fiscal 2016 was 0.02% below the average value of fiscal 2015.

The preliminary number for gasoline consumption – which is estimated by the FAFAA from the Treasury Department’s monthly gasoline excise tax collections paid by importers, which are transferred to P.R. Highways and Transportation Authority – in June was 80.4 million gallons, 3.4% higher than in June 2015. On a year-to-date basis, gasoline consumption has increased by 0.3%.

Cement sales for June totaled 1.03 million bags, registering an annual reduction of 19.5%. Sales for fiscal 2016 were 11.5% below the value in fiscal 2015.

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